Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...

Probability of harm (POH) is critical to appropriately scoring risks, so how should it be done? POH needs to show all probabilities, not suppress them.

Jason Fernando is a professional investor and writer who enjoys tackling and communicating complex business and financial problems. Somer G. Anderson is CPA, doctor of accounting, and an accounting ...

Expert judgment elicitation is often required in probabilistic decision making and the evaluation of risk. One measure of the quality of probability distributions given by experts is calibration-the ...